Poland's energy transition has become one of the key challenges of the coming decades. Faced with European climate policy imposing increasingly higher costs for carbon dioxide emissions under the EU ETS, Poland—like the rest of Europe—is grappling with the challenges of shutting down stable energy sources, such as coal-fired and nuclear power plants.
At the same time, investments in new capacity, primarily in renewable energy sources (RES) such as wind farms and photovoltaic farms, face limitations related to insufficient infrastructure, primarily in the areas of transmission grids and energy storage.
This situation leads to rising energy prices and threats to the stability of its supply, which directly impacts the competitiveness of the European and Polish economies. The relative impoverishment of societies resulting from rising energy costs poses a fundamental question: who will bear the burden of this transformation? Estimates indicate that the cost of changing the Polish energy mix in the coming decades could reach PLN 1.5 to 1.7 trillion.
In the context of growing geopolitical threats, especially after the repeated energy crises of recent years, the country's energy security has become a priority. This means not only the availability of energy but also its stable supply at acceptable prices. Therefore, transformation cannot be solely a reaction to EU directives – it must be a conscious process that protects
the country's economic and social interests.
Directions for necessary actions:
1. Adopting a coherent national energy strategy.
This strategy should not only be an administrative document but also have a real impact on the energy market, particularly on the operations of energy companies. Adapting the strategy to dynamic market
and geopolitical conditions should provide a foundation for investment and modernization of the sector.
2. Concentrating responsibilities in a single ministry.
The current fragmentation of responsibilities hinders key decision-making. Concentrating responsibility for energy policy and energy security in a single ministry will streamline decision-making processes and increase the effectiveness of state operations.
3. Accelerating investment in strategic generation assets.
A key project is the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Pomerania, which must be a priority. It is also essential to designate additional locations and select technological partners for subsequent nuclear power units.
4. Reactivate the NABE project or create a viable alternative.
Energy transition does not mean an immediate phase-out of coal. It is necessary to maintain the stability of the electricity system by supporting existing coal-fired power plants, which will remain necessary for some time until new energy sources reach the required capacity.
5. Finalizing gas investments.
Natural gas, although also carbon-intensive, is an important transition fuel in the transformation process. Therefore, it is essential to complete already initiated gas projects, which will ensure system flexibility and security of supply during the transition period. Stable natural gas supplies are crucial not only for energy security but also for the petrochemical sector.
6. Develop a strategy for transforming the heating sector.
The heating sector, often overlooked in public debate, also requires fundamental changes. Transforming heating plants into more energy-efficient and lower-emission units will be crucial both for achieving climate goals and improving residents' quality of life. In the future, small modular reactors, or SMRs, could prove to be a promising alternative to large heating systems.
7. Actions within the EU to promote a just transition.
Poland must actively advocate for EU institutions to take into account the specifics of its starting point: coal dependence, limited financial and infrastructure resources. The transition should be just, tailored to national capabilities and circumstances, and taking into account the economic situation of society.
Poland's energy transition is an inevitable process, but its course and pace should be adapted to the country's economic, social, and infrastructural realities. Adopting a comprehensive strategy, concentrating competencies, developing nuclear energy, prudent use of coal during the transition period, and active participation in the EU arena – these are key elements that can determine the success of this transition. Otherwise, we risk losing competitiveness, deepening energy poverty, and destabilizing the energy system.
