So many people define the idea of ​​electromobility - buying combustion cars. However, where the EV market is well developed, many users in customer research declares that their next vehicle will certainly not be an electric car.

The arguments of skeptics of electric vehicles are widely known - they can be found in the comments on any automotive portal. The year 2024 brought electrosceptes especially in Europe another argument: thanks to several months of collapse in Germany, where there was a slowdown and a decrease in the sale of electric vehicles, which affected negative sales for the entire European Union. Which is often presented as an announcement of the crash of the idea of ​​electromobility and a return to "exhaust fumes". Rightly?

The situation on the global market of "electricians" last year brought sales increases.

The sale of fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids in the world has increased, although the pace has slowed down. In 2024, global sales reached a record level of 17 million vehicles, which is an increase from 13.9 million in 2023. The European market shrunk by 3% and Chinese increased by 40%, increases by about 9% were in the USA and Canada. Despite the growing fears of falling demand, the data show a more complex picture of the situation . In recent years, the EV market has developed at an impressive pace. In 2022, sales increased by 60%, and in 2023 by 33%. Today, apart from Europe, some large markets, e.g. Japan, also record declines. The European EV market is currently in the transition phase. ₂ emissions and then they intend to introduce cheaper models. A similar phenomenon took place in 2019, when EV sales slowed down before tightening standards in 2020, after which it increased rapidly. There is no doubt that this price still remains a key problem for European consumers. For example, FIAT 500E costs about 12,000 euros more than its combustion equivalent, although an additional battery expenditure is only 3,000 euros. This difference means that many potential buyers give up the purchase of electric vehicles. Manufacturers will have to compensate for this gap to attract customers from the mass segment, and therefore we are probably waiting for a price war between producers about buyers!

China's leader

In the world, China remains the leader of the EV global market and despite the customs war they continue to maintain this role, responsible for 60% of the total sales of electric vehicles in 2024. This confirms the key role of this region in shaping the EV global landscape. The increase in China, however, is not only driven by fully electric vehicles (BEV). Plug-in hybrids are becoming more and more popular. As a curiosity, I will say that the largest EV manufacturer Byd in Zhengzhou is building a factory whose target area is to be 130 thousand. km2 will be larger than, for example, Toruń, for comparison, the Tesla factory in Nevada occupies a ten times smaller area. The target annual production of the factory in Zhengzhou is to reach 1 million vehicles. Last year, the sales of this giant amounted to 4.27 million cars. This year it is to be 5-6 million. Already today in the BYD group, almost 1 million people work in its 22 factories!

USA- it was stable

Although the United States lag behind Europe and China, the market is gradually developing, but today when changing the policy of President Trump in relation to the production of energy from renewable sources as well as electrification of transport and return towards hydrocarbon fuels. The development of "electricians" in the US remains uncertain. In the third quarter of 2024, about 390,000 electric vehicles were sold, which is a new record, but? Tesla is still the leader's position, but its market share has fallen below 50% and the competition from GM, Hyundai and Honda is constantly growing. EV currently constitutes over 10% of the total sales of vehicles in the USA.

Sales of electric vehicles in 2024 compared to 2023:

• World: 17.1 million, +25 percent
• China: 11 million, +40 percent
• EU, EFTA and Great Britain: 3 million, -3 percent
• USA and Canada: 1.8 million, +9 percent
• The rest of the world: 1.3 million, +27 percent

Perspectives according to Goldman Sachs. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, by 2035, more than half of the cars sold in the world will be electric. Most electricians will be purchased in the European Union (100 %), the United States (85 %), Japan (80 %) and China (68 %). According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, the sale of electric vehicles will increase to about 73 million pieces in 2040. In 2020, they were 2 million. Thus, the demand for new electrics will increase during this period from 2 to 61 percent. Analysts predict that in many developed countries over 80 percent. Sales will be electric cars.

Where is Poland on the European market?

Although the Polish population is constantly melting due to a negative demographic growth, the number of registered cars is constantly growing. Formally, we have almost over 30 million cars, most of which are passenger cars. Eurostat reports that the average age of a passenger car registered in Poland exceeds 22 years and in France or Denmark the average age of the car is about 9 years, in Germany - 10. For many years we preferred gas cars with a small liter, in which we mounted LPG installations, the previous decade belonged to diesel , which was mainly due to the low fuel. The drive is a hybrid. Experts predict that in connection with the entry into force of new restrictive EU regulations regarding CO2 emissions (headed by the Cafe - Clean Air for Europe directive. Clean air for Europe), new gasoline and diesel will get up in 2025 by several or even several thousand zlotys.

How are full electrics in Poland, i.e. BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle)? In Poland, around 18,000 are currently arriving in a year. "Electricians", which is as much as in twice the population of the Netherlands in a month. But we are not alone in this: in Italy, electric cars sell equally poorly.

In all of Europe, according to the statistics of the European Car Manufacturers Association (ACEA), 1.43 million electricians were registered in the first three quarters of 2024. They accounted for less than 15 percent. all new cars. This is the result worse than in 2023.

Participation of electric vehicles in Europe

Although the overall share of electric vehicles in Europe in 2024 did not change significantly, the situation looked different in individual countries. The greatest share of BEV in the sale of cars was recorded in: Norway - 88%, Denmark - 51%, Sweden and the Netherlands - 35%. On the other hand, the fastest increase in the number of EV sold was recorded in: Malta (+91%), Czechs (+64%). The decreases occurred in: Iceland (-70%), Romania (-32%). The reasons for these changes were related to the policy of the state. In Iceland, the reason was the increase in taxes for electric cars, and in Romania - a reduction in subsidies for the purchase of EV. This shows how much government regulations have on the development of electromobility. The best -selling EV models in Europe in 2024 are: Tesla Model Y and Model 3 for the third time in a row became the best -selling electric car. Among the brands, the leader in the sale of electric cars in 2024 was again Tesla with 11%market share, BMW (10%) took second place and the third Mercedes (8.7%). The Volkswagen group from 21.9%of the market share came first in the group's classification, followed by the BMW Group (11.3%) and Tesla (11%).

 EV development barriers

• high prices - especially in Europe, where the differences in value between electric and flue vehicles are significant,
• Charging infrastructure - it should be developed, especially in regions where EV adoption is slower,
• regulatory uncertainty - different regulations in various markets make it difficult to operate, producers,
• Geopolitical tensions - especially between the US and China, can affect supply chains and market dynamics.

Reasons for optimism

In 2025, a rapid growth of the European market is expected thanks to the prime minister of affordable models such as Renault 5 and VW ID.2. ₂ stricter standards will also motivate producers to increase EV sales. In the USA, investments in the charging network and more diverse vehicle models will also contribute to further development. China will probably maintain their dominant position, although the competition on the local market will be more and more fierce.

Will electric cars deduct diesel or other fuels, maybe ammonia?

The management of Toyota has been repeating for years that you should strive to reduce emissions in the most effective way. Scientists of the Japanese concern believe that an ammonia internal combustion engine can be a solution that will change the world of motoring. Toyota's management does not hide that he is a moderate fan of electrification at all costs. Instead, he implements a multi -track strategy for changes in the automotive industry. Work on the implementation of the production technology for ammonia for many years has been going on for many years. In 2023, Toyota presented a working prototype of such an engine. What are the advantages of such a solution? Existing car models can be adapted to the new fuel, because their design will not change fundamentally. For burning ammonia, you only need to adjust the engines, which requires a few challenges. First of all, burning ammonia requires a high degree of compression of the fuel-air mixture, otherwise it burns too slowly. The engine prototype for ammonia has two liters of capacity and develops 163 hp. His parameters do not make a great impression, but they are enough as a source of propulsion of popular cars. The production of ammonia in liquid state and a form where it can be used instead of gasoline requires a lot of energy. This makes it not very effective at the moment. In addition, in addition to the aforementioned emission of poisonous nitrogen compounds, ammonia is a highly toxic and corrosive substance, which will certainly make the operation of engines to such fuel to be expensive and troublesome

Toyota, Subaru, Mazda invests in a new generation of smaller and more economical internal combustion engines . Toyota is and remains a phenomenon. Some are currently building giant battery factories for electric cars, others proudly launch new electric vehicles powered by batteries in the premium segment. What does Toyota do? Toyota invests in a completely new generation of smaller and more economical internal combustion engines when the entire automotive industry goes to the electric drive from batteries and clearly announces the departure from the technology of combustion engines. The company establishes cooperation with Japanese from Subaru and Mazda, the first of which is famous for the four -wheel drive drive in the field, and the second of the involvement of the Wankel engine. All three Japanese car manufacturers, headed by Toyota, focus on a new generation of internal combustion engines as a key technology that allows reduction and neutralization of CO2 emissions. Toyota is the largest and most profitable car manufacturer in the world - an automotive giant! And to this day it remains a family company founded on August 28, 1937 by Kiichiro Toyoda. Although everyone was chasing Tesla's electric car, the current industry leader, Toyoda, did not care. The current president of Aki Toyoda said that a new approach to old technology would help win the fight against emissions, while saving jobs and keep the smell, sound and tactile impressions that ardent automotive enthusiasts want. Toyota is considered a pioneer in the field of hybrid vehicles, and the first hybrid car, Prius, released a quarter of a century ago. Toyota has achieved record revenues, sales and profit thanks to the growing sales of hybrid cars.

For the international automotive industry, this is a warning signal!

The text was released in Gentleman Lato2025 No. 6-8/2025