What will surprise us with the EU after the presidential election?

We remember well, as in 2024, the public was fed with fantastic visions about the importance of the Polish Presidency in the Council of the European Union. How much did it come true? Unfortunately, nothing at all. And our situation in the EU is not better today than before the start of the Polish presidency.

Any attentive observer will easily notice that the European Commission (EC) has postponed several key decisions to the period "after the Polish Presidency" (i.e. after June 30, 2025), and some delayed the minimum to June 2, when the result of the presidential election in our country will be known. Sounds like a conspiracy theory? Not at all - the leading French daily "Le Monde" came to the same conclusion, which, due to the centrolevilic profile, is difficult to suspect of sympathies opposite the current policy of the European Commission. Let's look at what difficult and uncomfortable topics, the government was released during the presidential campaign in Poland and during our presidency in the Council:

  1. Announcement of the EU climate goal for 2040

It was to take place in the first quarter of 2025, but we already know that it was postponed to ... July 2. Thus, Poland will not chair the conversations of the Member States in this matter. As announced from 2024 - the EC will most likely propose the purpose of reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the amount of 90% to 2040. Interestingly - after Poland, the presidency will take over Denmark, which supports the highest EU ambitions in terms of climate purpose, which will give the committee a guarantee of success, and the current government will free from the burden of social protests of Polish miners or industry.

  1. Recent elements of Fit for 55, including Revision of the ETD Directive

As the EC pointed out in the press release of October 9, 2023 - "The Commission was satisfied with the completion of work on the key legislative package" Fit for 55 ", thanks to which the EU is on the right track to cross the goals on 2030" One of the elements of the package was the revision of the ETD directive, which, however, was not completed today.

  1. Implementation of the EU migration and asylum (so -called migration pact)

The migration pact, which consists of 10 legislative acts, will enter into force in 2026, which was ultimately determined on May 14, 2024 by the EU Council, after the European Parliament (PE) was accepted by the Pact. The new EU regulations regarding migration also establish a common asylum system at the EU level and a must -have solidarity mechanism. Member States must implement a migration pact at the latest in 2026. In June 2024, the European Commission presented a joint implementation plan (which is to assume the member states in this process), which, among others He obliged the Member States to present the Commission of the Implementation Plan in its area until December 2024. Poland was one of the three EU countries that did not submit a plan of implementation within the time limit, which, however, in no way releases us from the obligation to introduce the migration pact in mid -2026. Certainly, the hard and negative attitude of Polish society to the migration pact could have caused the government delay in submitting a plan to implement the Pact by Poland to the Commission, but at the same time he could also convince the chairwoman of the EC that until the presidential election in Poland resolved, this document from the prime minister did not claim this document. It is better to wait a few months than to shake (and weakening) surveys of support for the party with which he co -creates a coalition in PE ...

  1. New regulations regarding the EU exchange with Ukraine

In June 2025, the EC was to make decisions regarding new exchange regulations between the EU and Ukraine, including in the field of agricultural production. The EC has already announced that it will announce it after this date. It is not known whether this will reduce the scale of future protests from Polish farmers, but it will definitely delay them in time ...

  1. Formal ratification of the contract with Mercosur

The EU agreement with Mercosur is already a foregone conclusion. The formal ratification has been delayed, so in this topic the government will also be able to explain to Polish farmers that it was the Danes who sign ...

These are only the five most important issues that originally were to settle or finalize in the first half of 2025, some of them - even until May this year. However, the European Commission is well aware of the fact that each of these topics will arouse a sharp discussion in Poland, cause a wave of social dissatisfaction and worsen the support of Donald Tusk's government. The implementation of each of these activities would also significantly weaken Rafał Trzaskowski's chances of winning in elections, which he finally lost. Probably that is why Donald Tusk in February this year. In Gdańsk, he declared that Poland would not implement the EU migration pact.

In the whole situation, it is unpleasant that for the particular interests of the ruling coalition, Poland lost and silenced its presidency (the second in history). At their own request, they did not deal with anything important, but thanks to this they avoided several difficult topics, crises and social protests. At least a few crucial for Poland, our economy and a 37.5 million society will be transferred to the conduct and resolution of Denmark (of less than 6 million inhabitants), which-with a high degree of probability-will know and be able to make use of its presidency.

Authors:

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Adam Tywoniuk

Board member

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