For years, Europe had been convinced that the fate of the continent was determined by a German-French alliance, sometimes aided by Brussels. Anything that didn't fit this mold was treated as regional exotica—from Scandinavia to the Balkans. But 2025 arrived, and the United States executed a "brutal maneuver" that no one in Berlin truly wanted to take seriously: it cut Europe off from its top priority and announced an era of transactional, not sentimental, partnerships.

This simple shift carries a powerful implication: America no longer needs Europe as a "Western unity." America needs partners capable of keeping Russia in check—not European salons discussing "European values .

And suddenly it turns out that Poland meets three conditions that Berlin does not meet:

• has a real anti-Russian doctrine, not a declaration,
• invests in the military, not in further ideology laboratories,
• is ready to take responsibility for the region, not just to talk about "leadership".

The USA needs Poland, not Germany.

NSS 2025 clearly states: Europe will not be the future of American power projection , and Berlin is "preoccupied with itself, without real military and strategic capability" (this is said directly in the analyses of the administration's environment, not in the euphemistic language of diplomacy).

The United States will not maintain an umbrella for countries that:

• they do not arm themselves,
• they do not modernize the army,
• they do not take responsibility,
• and at the same time they lecture others about the "rule of law"!

Poland, on the other hand, has been doing exactly what the US expects since 2016:

• invests in real military capabilities,
• builds a defense industry,
• attracts technologies,
• is anti-Russian without a shadow of a doubt,
• understands the logic of deterrence – not the logic of declaration.

That is why the US is beginning to see Warsaw as the de facto main pillar of the security of the European East .

For years, a tacit rule has existed in Berlin and Brussels that Poland has the right to be "important," but not "decisive." It can say something about Ukraine, it can say something about Russia, but the decisions are made by the Berlin-Paris duo, with possible approval by the European Commission.

NSS 2025 does something the EU hasn't done for decades: it legitimizes Poland as a country capable of leading the region without having to agree on everything with Berlin .

And this is – from Germany's perspective – dangerous. Militarily. Politically. Because if Warsaw becomes the decision-making center and the US begins to treat it as the main channel of policy in the region, then Berlin will cease to be Europe's center of gravity.

Time for a strong and "hard" thesis: Poland-USA, together against Russia's attempt to return to the empire

In this setup the scenario is simple:

• Poland + CEE region + Ukraine are becoming the zone of the West ,
• The US provides a strategic umbrella,
• Poland becomes a local enforcer of deterrence ,
• and Germany must adapt to this logic.
• It is the Americans – not Brussels – who are containing Russia,
• It is Poland – not Germany – that organizes the European front line.
• It is Warsaw – not Berlin – that decides on the direction of support for Ukraine.
• And it is Warsaw – not the “Commission” – that has the mandate that America considers real (Karol NAWROCKI again).

"Central Europe 2040": Berlin's first real competitor

If Poland maintains:

• 4-5% of GDP for defense,
• own military industry,
• regional infrastructure projects,
• and strategic control over the Ukrainian direction, a new European entity will be created : "Central Europe under Polish leadership", which:
• has demographics,
• has political energy,
• has economic potential,
• has military deterrence capabilities,
• and has a US mandate.

For the first time in history , Poland will become a real competitor to Berlin . Not by kicking Germany from below, but by entering a level playing field . Russia will only be stopped by that part of Europe that truly understands Russia. It's no coincidence that Poland has never harbored any illusions about this. That it's Warsaw—with President Karol Nawrocki—that understands the gravity of the current moment more fully than Berlin.

And that it is not Germany, but Poland, that is today the natural center of the strategic eastern flank. Therefore, the scenario in which Warsaw becomes a European power thanks to US support – against the German project of EU federalization – is no longer just possible. It has become politically plausible.

This is especially true since America simply does not see Berlin as a strategic ally today . It sees it as a defensive player who missed its own century, while in Poland it sees a country that knows where Russia is and knows what the West is.

Germany—a country with a historical guilt complex and, at the same time, an undying hegemonic ambition— cannot allow a political, military, and economic competitor to emerge anywhere east of the Oder River that develops faster than Berlin. That would be the end of its sole, unspoken but consistently cultivated raison d'être: the belief that Germany knows how to lead Europe, and the rest of the continent simply has to follow its path, learning European etiquette.

But the Europe of 2025–2035 is no longer the same Europe Berlin tried to project. The world has accelerated: Russia has shed its mask, the US has shifted its priorities, NATO has begun to demand real force, not declarations, and the eastern flank has ceased to be a peripheral fringe. It has become the epicenter of Western security.

Germany—accustomed for decades to domination through economics, moral preaching, and social diplomacy— was suddenly left with tools unsuited to the era of hardline geopolitics . Strange regulations, climate slogans, normative documents—all of this proved of little use in a world where military capabilities, deterrence, and technology matter, not the latest EU manifestos, matter.

Hence Berlin's nervousness. Poland is growing faster, more dynamically, and more threatening to the German narrative: militarily, economically, geopolitically, and mentally. Poland today is where history is truly unfolding. Germany, on the other hand, has stalled where history once stood.

Losing hegemony in the east of the continent would mean a loss of identity for Berlin. That's why Germany reacts nervously : it tries to regain the moral center of the European debate, talking about "values," while in the background:

• industrial collapse,
• energy crisis resulting from policy towards Russia,
• social tensions caused by many years of poorly managed migration policy.

Europe is increasingly less likely to look to Berlin, because Berlin has no real plan for reality today —it only has a mechanism for administering the past. Poland, on the other hand—paradoxically, or perhaps simply historically— is entering a period of dynamic growth , in which it not only fills space but begins to define it. Where Germany sought to govern, Poland is beginning to lead.